FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.78 – 56.84

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.5 ±12.1

10622Gwinn ModelBots

Season APEX 48Event APEX 5.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9249Chassell Copper Country Cats

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 33.2Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7814RV Gearheads

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 12.51Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±13.3

9733Gold Diggers

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX -2.35Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 45.54Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10595Big Bay de Noc Black Bear Bolts

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 13.65Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10622, 9249, 7814

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10622, 9249, 7814

Auto

12.4 28%

Teleop

16.2 36%

Endgame

16.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9733, 4375, 10595

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9733, 4375, 10595

Auto

4.4 9%

Teleop

29.6 61%

Endgame

14.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.8pts

Blue projected score56.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.1
Score range: 29–79
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.5Season APEX196.8

12.4Auto4.4

16.2Teleop29.6

16.2Endgame14.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	22
teleop	69	22
endgame	21	25
foul	0	0
total	105	69

Result

Final score

105 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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