FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.18 – 158.52

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 112.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.6 ±11

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 34.8Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6637BetaWolves

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 26.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5486Robotic Turmoil

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 24.03Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.3 ±10.7

6098bIrobot

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 2.31Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 48.48Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 107.73Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4398, 6637, 5486

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4398, 6637, 5486

Auto

21.2 26%

Teleop

27.6 34%

Endgame

32.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6098, 4967, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6098, 4967, 3536

Auto

35.6 23%

Teleop

90.5 57%

Endgame

32.1 20%

Strengths

· 3536 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score158.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.3
Score range: 65–179
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.6Season APEX400.3

21.2Auto35.6

27.6Teleop90.5

32.5Endgame32.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	32
teleop	134	106
endgame	55	49
foul	25	0
total	282	187

Result

Final score

282 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 112.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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