Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
79.03 – 98.37
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
21 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.4 ±13.3
Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 32.18Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 72Event APEX 46.57Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 0.28Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±11.6
Season APEX 103Event APEX 46.57Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48Event APEX -6.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 58.14Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7814, 9722, 5878
55
/ 100 compatProjected
79 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 7814, 9722, 5878
Auto
12.4 16%
Teleop
39.0 51%
Endgame
25.8 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 857, 10622, 7768
64
/ 100 compatProjected
98.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 857, 10622, 7768
Auto
23.4 24%
Teleop
51.1 53%
Endgame
21.4 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score79pts
Blue projected score98.4pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -19.3
- Score range
- 58–119
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
201.4Season APEX230.4
12.4Auto23.4
39Teleop51.1
25.8Endgame21.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 18 |
| teleop | 2 | 68 |
| endgame | 3 | 30 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 21 | 116 |
Result
Final score
21 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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