FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.49 – 34.26

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.8 ±11.6

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 25.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 18.54Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 43.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.9 ±12.2

4392The Deceivers

Season APEX 145.2Event APEX 18.54Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10589Binary Crows

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 7.43Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5547The Talons

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 8.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4375, 5424, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4375, 5424, 8517

Auto

25.3 30%

Teleop

45.4 53%

Endgame

14.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4392, 10589, 5547

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4392, 10589, 5547

Auto

16.5 51%

Teleop

11.3 35%

Endgame

4.6 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.5pts

Blue projected score34.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.2
Score range: 13–108
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.8Season APEX283.9

25.3Auto16.5

45.4Teleop11.3

14.4Endgame4.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	36
teleop	85	53
endgame	40	9
foul	0	0
total	152	98

Result

Final score

152 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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