FIM District LSSU Event presented by Lake Superior State University

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.42 – 199.94

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 101.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.4 ±9.8

6121RoboVikes

Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 89.86Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6088Stephenson Eagles

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 2.38Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4779RoboSapiens

Season APEX 143.6Event APEX 84.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 120Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4375Westend Gearbusters

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 22.39Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10666Green MachineZ

Season APEX 106Event APEX 57.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6121, 6088, 4779

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6121, 6088, 4779

Auto

42.2 25%

Teleop

90.7 53%

Endgame

37.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 4375, 10666

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 4375, 10666

Auto

34.7 18%

Teleop

113.9 58%

Endgame

46.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.4pts

Blue projected score199.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.5
Score range: 149–227
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.4Season APEX354.8

42.2Auto34.7

90.7Teleop113.9

37.3Endgame46.4

25Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	53
teleop	65	131
endgame	27	72
foul	20	0
total	179	0

Result

Final score

179 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 101.3 pts

Match videos

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