FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.9 – 255.03

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 251

Prediction missed · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.7 ±11.7

4405The Atoms Family

Season APEX 109.1Event APEX 58.95Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 120.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 97.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.4 ±11

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 72.37Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 79.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 103.49Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4405, 9572, 7174

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4405, 9572, 7174

Auto

69.1 26%

Teleop

131.6 49%

Endgame

70.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 123, 6914, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

255 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 123, 6914, 5533

Auto

39.5 16%

Teleop

145.4 58%

Endgame

66.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score276.9pts

Blue projected score255pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 218–314
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 203.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.7Season APEX313.4

69.1Auto39.5

131.6Teleop145.4

70Endgame66.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	50
teleop	74	112
endgame	64	74
foul	0	15
total	215	251

Result

Final score

215 – 251

Prediction missed · off by 33 pts

Match videos

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