FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.8 – 177.87

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.5 ±12.7

7147Rising Falcons

Season APEX 101Event APEX 29.6Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 79.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 90.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±12.1

1250Gator-Bots

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 78.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 54.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 45.08Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7147, 7553, 6861

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7147, 7553, 6861

Auto

16.2 8%

Teleop

113.2 58%

Endgame

66.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1250, 2832, 5559

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1250, 2832, 5559

Auto

22.8 13%

Teleop

100.4 57%

Endgame

52.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.8pts

Blue projected score177.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 142–236
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 201.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.5Season APEX279.7

16.2Auto22.8

113.2Teleop100.4

66.1Endgame52.6

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	19
teleop	174	119
endgame	73	81
foul	0	5
total	288	224

Result

Final score

288 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Match videos

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