FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344 – 261.65

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

395 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.8 ±9.9

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 14.48Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 174.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 154.71Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.4 ±11

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 74.6Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 81.4Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 105.65Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5050, 3414, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

344 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5050, 3414, 1189

Auto

70.6 21%

Teleop

205.5 60%

Endgame

66.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 123, 6914, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 123, 6914, 5533

Auto

35.2 13%

Teleop

156.1 60%

Endgame

69.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score344pts

Blue projected score261.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.4
Score range: 226–380
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 199.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.8Season APEX313.4

70.6Auto35.2

205.5Teleop156.1

66.6Endgame69.7

56Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	50
teleop	203	117
endgame	91	83
foul	15	15
total	395	265

Result

Final score

395 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Match videos

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