FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.25 – 217.15

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 652.2 ±9.9

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 119.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 4.85Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 154.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.5 ±12.7

7147Rising Falcons

Season APEX 101Event APEX 36.96Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 84.65Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 95.54Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5907, 830, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5907, 830, 6152

Auto

67.3 25%

Teleop

145.3 53%

Endgame

61.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7147, 7553, 6861

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7147, 7553, 6861

Auto

20.3 9%

Teleop

125.3 59%

Endgame

68.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score278.3pts

Blue projected score217.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.1
Score range: 180–315
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 204.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

652.2Season APEX311.5

67.3Auto20.3

145.3Teleop125.3

61.2Endgame68.1

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	15
teleop	182	72
endgame	67	86
foul	5	5
total	350	178

Result

Final score

350 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Match videos

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