FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.71 – 166

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 319

Prediction missed · off by 94.1 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±12.2

10672Trobots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 9.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 97.14Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 75.14Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.1 ±10.5

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 97.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 6.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 62.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10672, 123, 7553

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10672, 123, 7553

Auto

26.6 15%

Teleop

108.6 60%

Endgame

45.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6152, 8115, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

166 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6152, 8115, 1481

Auto

22.0 13%

Teleop

98.6 59%

Endgame

45.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.7pts

Blue projected score166pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 137–211
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 158.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.6Season APEX475.1

26.6Auto22

108.6Teleop98.6

45.1Endgame45.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	63
teleop	115	183
endgame	63	63
foul	0	10
total	217	319

Result

Final score

217 – 319

Prediction missed · off by 94.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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