FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.87 – 287.9

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 88 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.8 ±13.3

11455The Iron Patriots

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 16.62Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10664Big Reds

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 32.91Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9751OIA PantherBots

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 33.34Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.7 ±10.5

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 143.56Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 68.43Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 75.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11455, 10664, 9751

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11455, 10664, 9751

Auto

8.2 10%

Teleop

54.8 65%

Endgame

20.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 123, 6861

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1189, 123, 6861

Auto

39.6 14%

Teleop

170.9 60%

Endgame

72.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.9pts

Blue projected score287.9pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205
Score range: 48–323
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 194.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.8Season APEX487.7

8.2Auto39.6

54.8Teleop170.9

20.7Endgame72.3

26Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	46
teleop	2	251
endgame	2	111
foul	0	0
total	27	408

Result

Final score

27 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 88 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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