FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.54 – 117.79

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 74.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.7 ±11.4

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX -Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX -Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.4 ±13.3

9735Electric Dragons

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 65.43Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4405The Atoms Family

Season APEX 109.1Event APEX -Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 6861, 11361

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 27, 6861, 11361

Auto

23.6 30%

Teleop

39.3 50%

Endgame

15.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9735, 4405, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9735, 4405, 2832

Auto

32.3 27%

Teleop

62.2 53%

Endgame

23.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.5pts

Blue projected score117.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.2
Score range: 51–146
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.7Season APEX239.4

-Auto16.6

-Teleop36

-Endgame12.9

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	28
teleop	162	53
endgame	9	33
foul	0	0
total	224	114

Result

Final score

224 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 74.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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