FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.32 – 118.8

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.6 ±13.9

10590Compass Team

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 6.14Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2604Metal and Soul

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 21.41Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 20.77Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.5 ±12.8

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 109.81Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7147Rising Falcons

Season APEX 101Event APEX 9.06Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -0.07Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10590, 2604, 6099

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10590, 2604, 6099

Auto

11.2 23%

Teleop

20.5 41%

Endgame

17.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1481, 7147, 10659

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1481, 7147, 10659

Auto

26.5 23%

Teleop

58.1 51%

Endgame

30.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.3pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.5
Score range: 13–154
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 195.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.6Season APEX279.5

11.2Auto26.5

20.5Teleop58.1

17.7Endgame30.2

74Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	50
teleop	13	136
endgame	11	10
foul	0	0
total	37	196

Result

Final score

37 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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