FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

318.81 – 334.44

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 101.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.5 ±10.5

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 115.5Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 117.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 85.51Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±11.7

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 155.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 108.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4405The Atoms Family

Season APEX 109.1Event APEX 71.15Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5907, 5533, 6914

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5907, 5533, 6914

Auto

40.1 13%

Teleop

189.7 59%

Endgame

90.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 7174, 4405

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1189, 7174, 4405

Auto

67.4 20%

Teleop

185.9 56%

Endgame

80.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score318.8pts

Blue projected score334.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 284–369
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 196.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.5Season APEX521.8

40.1Auto67.4

189.7Teleop185.9

90.8Endgame80.7

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	55
teleop	123	95
endgame	48	78
foul	0	0
total	222	228

Result

Final score

222 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 101.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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