FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.4 – 117.59

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.5 ±12.8

8623Michigan FC

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX -18.91Rank 41Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 101.95Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -39.64Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±12.4

11455The Iron Patriots

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 8.27Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7147Rising Falcons

Season APEX 101Event APEX -1.17Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 110.49Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8623, 1481, 11361

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8623, 1481, 11361

Auto

14.4 37%

Teleop

10.3 26%

Endgame

14.3 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11455, 7147, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11455, 7147, 9572

Auto

31.6 27%

Teleop

49.0 42%

Endgame

36.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.4pts

Blue projected score117.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.2
Score range: 8–153
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 196.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.5Season APEX376.8

14.4Auto31.6

10.3Teleop49

14.3Endgame36.9

127Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	54
teleop	67	99
endgame	7	37
foul	0	0
total	114	190

Result

Final score

114 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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