FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.13 – 27.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 71.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±12.7

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 8.71Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 54.17Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10590Compass Team

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -0.75Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.1 ±13.3

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 76.47Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -49.6Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 0.42Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 830, 2832, 10590

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 830, 2832, 10590

Auto

25.4 44%

Teleop

10.3 18%

Endgame

22.1 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7553, 11361, 6099

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7553, 11361, 6099

Auto

-6.3 0%

Teleop

28.1 92%

Endgame

8.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.1pts

Blue projected score27.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.8
Score range: -8–97
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 193.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.9Season APEX218.1

25.4Auto-6.3

10.3Teleop28.1

22.1Endgame8.8

36Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	17
teleop	54	65
endgame	23	46
foul	0	0
total	104	128

Result

Final score

104 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 71.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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