FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.19 – 0

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±12.4

2604Metal and Soul

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 31.65Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 175.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 30.21Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.2 ±13.9

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -55.98Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -4.03Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7145RoboHawks

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 17.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2604, 1189, 5467

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2604, 1189, 5467

Auto

38.6 16%

Teleop

137.0 58%

Endgame

61.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11361, 10659, 7145

/ 100 compat

Projected

-42.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11361, 10659, 7145

Auto

7.9 0%

Teleop

-31.8 81%

Endgame

-15.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.2pts

Blue projected score-42.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237.2
Score range: -35–272
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 195.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.9Season APEX203.2

38.6Auto7.9

137Teleop-31.8

61.9Endgame-15.4

44Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	12
teleop	100	6
endgame	32	14
foul	0	0
total	183	32

Result

Final score

183 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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