FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.18 – 70.04

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.5 ±12.4

10590Compass Team

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 8.82Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8623Michigan FC

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 9.01Rank 41Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 176.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.3 ±12.1

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 8.99Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9751OIA PantherBots

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 20.77Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8426Automated Amphibians

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 40.28Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10590, 8623, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10590, 8623, 3414

Auto

44.4 23%

Teleop

110.3 57%

Endgame

39.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5050, 9751, 8426

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5050, 9751, 8426

Auto

15.9 22%

Teleop

45.8 63%

Endgame

11.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.2pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.1
Score range: 34–230
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 197.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.5Season APEX220.3

44.4Auto15.9

110.3Teleop45.8

39.4Endgame11.2

94Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	27
teleop	48	45
endgame	0	38
foul	0	15
total	109	125

Result

Final score

109 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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