FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.63 – 206.54

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±11.2

8297WIHI Robo Wolves

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 62.38Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 98.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 73.79Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 474.5 ±11.7

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 37.33Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 62.46Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 106.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8297, 9572, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8297, 9572, 123

Auto

58.3 26%

Teleop

115.4 51%

Endgame

52.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4768, 5559, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4768, 5559, 5907

Auto

46.9 23%

Teleop

132.2 65%

Endgame

25.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.6pts

Blue projected score206.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.1
Score range: 172–270
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 194.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.3Season APEX474.5

58.3Auto46.9

115.4Teleop132.2

52.6Endgame25.3

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	39
teleop	108	144
endgame	84	56
foul	0	0
total	220	239

Result

Final score

220 – 239

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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