FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.72 – 200.6

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±11.6

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 71.33Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 80.18Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 69.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.7 ±12.2

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 123.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1250Gator-Bots

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 65.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9205Technical Marauders1

Season APEX 77Event APEX 11.4Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7553, 5843, 7174

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7553, 5843, 7174

Auto

35.6 16%

Teleop

120.9 55%

Endgame

64.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1481, 1250, 9205

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1481, 1250, 9205

Auto

28.0 15%

Teleop

101.9 53%

Endgame

60.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.7pts

Blue projected score200.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 166–256
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 193.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX347.7

35.6Auto28

120.9Teleop101.9

64.7Endgame60.6

24Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	23
teleop	199	74
endgame	67	45
foul	0	0
total	309	142

Result

Final score

309 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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