FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.33 – 92.08

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±13.3

8623Michigan FC

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 10.03Rank 41Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 51.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 1.33Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±11.7

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 47.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 91.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -46.87Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8623, 6914, 10659

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8623, 6914, 10659

Auto

6.9 11%

Teleop

46.6 73%

Endgame

10.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2832, 9572, 11361

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2832, 9572, 11361

Auto

19.2 21%

Teleop

41.8 45%

Endgame

32.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score92.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 28–127
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 195.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX403.3

6.9Auto19.2

46.6Teleop41.8

10.1Endgame32.4

123Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	38
teleop	32	52
endgame	30	26
foul	0	0
total	66	116

Result

Final score

66 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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