FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.71 – 166.05

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±12.8

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 127.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10672Trobots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 44.28Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8297WIHI Robo Wolves

Season APEX 92.5Event APEX 59.89Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.3 ±12.4

10590Compass Team

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 8.6Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 34.8Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 122.65Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1481, 10672, 8297

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1481, 10672, 8297

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

129.2 57%

Endgame

63.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10590, 5467, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10590, 5467, 5907

Auto

43.0 25%

Teleop

94.3 55%

Endgame

34.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.7pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.7
Score range: 131–267
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 196.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320Season APEX413.3

34.8Auto43

129.2Teleop94.3

63.5Endgame34

83Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	39
teleop	65	57
endgame	71	26
foul	35	0
total	204	122

Result

Final score

204 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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