FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.07 – 260.55

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.9 ±11.7

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 80.8Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7145RoboHawks

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 21.34Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 224.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.8 ±11.7

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 54.67Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 194.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10664Big Reds

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 11.18Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5559, 7145, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5559, 7145, 3538

Auto

49.5 15%

Teleop

204.8 63%

Endgame

72.4 22%

Strengths

· 3538 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 830, 3414, 10664

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 830, 3414, 10664

Auto

31.6 12%

Teleop

141.2 54%

Endgame

88.6 34%

Strengths

· 3414 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score327.1pts

Blue projected score260.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.5
Score range: 226–362
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 196.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.9Season APEX385.8

49.5Auto31.6

204.8Teleop141.2

72.4Endgame88.6

48Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	68
teleop	135	77
endgame	57	16
foul	0	0
total	265	161

Result

Final score

265 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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