FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.37 – 238.6

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.8 ±12.8

4405The Atoms Family

Season APEX 109.1Event APEX 119.8Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9205Technical Marauders1

Season APEX 77Event APEX 13.84Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 97.73Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.1 ±11.7

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 187.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 31.77Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7147Rising Falcons

Season APEX 101Event APEX 19.32Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4405, 9205, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4405, 9205, 5843

Auto

43.6 19%

Teleop

120.1 52%

Endgame

66.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 8115, 7147

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1189, 8115, 7147

Auto

49.7 21%

Teleop

132.5 57%

Endgame

51.7 22%

Strengths

· 1189 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.4pts

Blue projected score238.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 195–275
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 199.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.8Season APEX402.1

43.6Auto49.7

120.1Teleop132.5

66.2Endgame51.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	44
teleop	63	117
endgame	28	24
foul	0	0
total	128	185

Result

Final score

128 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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