FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.05 – 121.91

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 630.8 ±9.3

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 77.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 177.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 85.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.5 ±12.7

2604Metal and Soul

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 21.01Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 51.33Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 49.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9572, 1189, 5843

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9572, 1189, 5843

Auto

64.6 19%

Teleop

176.8 52%

Endgame

99.0 29%

Strengths

· 1189 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2604, 7553, 830

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2604, 7553, 830

Auto

11.7 9%

Teleop

49.2 39%

Endgame

64.1 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score341.1pts

Blue projected score121.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 219.1
Score range: 87–376
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 195.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

630.8Season APEX155.5

64.6Auto11.7

176.8Teleop49.2

99Endgame64.1

117Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	13
teleop	228	83
endgame	95	68
foul	0	5
total	403	169

Result

Final score

403 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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