FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.94 – 66.13

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.5 ±13.3

9205Technical Marauders1

Season APEX 77Event APEX 48.66Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10664Big Reds

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 22.29Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 83.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.7 ±13.3

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 30.59Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 9.12Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10590Compass Team

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 26.42Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9205, 10664, 7553

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9205, 10664, 7553

Auto

6.5 4%

Teleop

101.1 65%

Endgame

47.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6861, 10659, 10590

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6861, 10659, 10590

Auto

30.6 46%

Teleop

33.7 51%

Endgame

2.2 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.9pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.8
Score range: 30–191
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 200.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.5Season APEX197.7

6.5Auto30.6

101.1Teleop33.7

47.8Endgame2.2

108Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	6	63
endgame	5	0
foul	0	0
total	24	81

Result

Final score

24 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 72.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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