FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.9 – 226.37

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 114.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.8 ±11.7

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -43.82Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 28.12Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 194.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.2 ±11.2

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 54.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2604Metal and Soul

Season APEX 24.2Event APEX 13.17Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 158.54Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6099, 2832, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6099, 2832, 3538

Auto

19.3 11%

Teleop

111.2 61%

Endgame

51.2 28%

Strengths

· 3538 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9572, 2604, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9572, 2604, 5533

Auto

22.6 10%

Teleop

121.9 53%

Endgame

85.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.9pts

Blue projected score226.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.5
Score range: 144–261
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 195.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.8Season APEX374.2

19.3Auto22.6

111.2Teleop121.9

51.2Endgame85.6

93Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	55
teleop	191	137
endgame	130	94
foul	0	0
total	349	286

Result

Final score

349 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 114.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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