FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.88 – 67.05

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.3 ±13.3

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 17.64Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10659Jaguar Byte

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 0.53Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 32.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±11.6

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 12.03Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 54.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 0.53Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6099, 10659, 7174

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6099, 10659, 7174

Auto

17.5 34%

Teleop

33.7 65%

Endgame

1.0 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5559, 5843, 5050

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5559, 5843, 5050

Auto

7.8 11%

Teleop

39.8 58%

Endgame

21.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.9pts

Blue projected score67.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.2
Score range: 17–101
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 188.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.3Season APEX285.9

17.5Auto7.8

33.7Teleop39.8

1Endgame21

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	14	68
endgame	6	60
foul	0	0
total	39	141

Result

Final score

39 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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