FIM District Livonia Event presented by Aisin

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.12 – 134.93

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 533

Prediction correct · off by 251 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±12.7

1250Gator-Bots

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 19.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8426Automated Amphibians

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 52.29Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -18.31Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.7 ±9.5

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 18.64Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 64Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 52.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1250, 8426, 5467

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1250, 8426, 5467

Auto

5.9 11%

Teleop

38.9 71%

Endgame

9.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2832, 27, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2832, 27, 1189

Auto

23.0 17%

Teleop

92.7 69%

Endgame

19.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score134.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.8
Score range: 22–166
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 690 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.7Season APEX725.7

5.9Auto23

38.9Teleop92.7

9.7Endgame19.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	127
teleop	74	297
endgame	51	109
foul	0	0
total	157	533

Result

Final score

157 – 533

Prediction correct · off by 251 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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