Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.19 – 128.54

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.1 ±12.1

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 17.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 15.58Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 21Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 13.3Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 54.7Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 60.54Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9566, 2959, 10651

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9566, 2959, 10651

Auto

4.9 9%

Teleop

34.4 65%

Endgame

14.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5980, 3875, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5980, 3875, 5676

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

72.2 56%

Endgame

40.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.2pts

Blue projected score128.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.3
Score range: 34–149
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.1Season APEX354.8

4.9Auto16.6

34.4Teleop72.2

14Endgame40.1

1Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	31
teleop	23	91
endgame	17	19
foul	0	15
total	51	156

Result

Final score

51 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Match videos

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