Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.52 – 150.78

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.7 ±11

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 47.55Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 29.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 12.66Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 51.45Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 62.06Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 37.27Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1188, 9215, 5248

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1188, 9215, 5248

Auto

19.8 22%

Teleop

49.3 56%

Endgame

19.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8126, 245, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8126, 245, 11386

Auto

34.7 23%

Teleop

74.9 50%

Endgame

39.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score150.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.3
Score range: 70–171
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.7Season APEX365.2

19.8Auto34.7

49.3Teleop74.9

19.2Endgame39.9

9Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	31
teleop	15	52
endgame	3	18
foul	0	15
total	57	116

Result

Final score

57 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Match videos

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