Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.39 – 113.54

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 11.86Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 53.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 59.63Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±11.6

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 41.4Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 47.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 24.17Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5980, 3875, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5980, 3875, 5676

Auto

14.5 12%

Teleop

65.6 52%

Endgame

45.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 858, 5559, 3658

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 858, 5559, 3658

Auto

16.5 15%

Teleop

59.3 53%

Endgame

35.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.4pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.8
Score range: 94–145
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.8Season APEX258.4

14.5Auto16.5

65.6Teleop59.3

45.5Endgame35.5

49Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	98	92
endgame	16	41
foul	0	15
total	141	163

Result

Final score

141 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 pts

Match videos

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