Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
109.84 – 141.43
40%60%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
205 – 201
Prediction missed · off by 77.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 45.88Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56Event APEX 2.04Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 61.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 48.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 59.24Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92Event APEX 34.18Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5152, 9703, 5675
61
/ 100 compatProjected
109.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 5152, 9703, 5675
Auto
33.9 31%
Teleop
47.9 44%
Endgame
27.7 25%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8126, 245, 11386
75
/ 100 compatProjected
141.4 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 8126, 245, 11386
Auto
36.6 26%
Teleop
73.1 51%
Endgame
33.6 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score109.8pts
Blue projected score141.4pts
Red win probability40%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -31.6
- Score range
- 90–161
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 406 vs event baseline 111.6.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
330.2Season APEX365.2
33.9Auto36.6
47.9Teleop73.1
27.7Endgame33.6
0Consistency26
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 56 | 30 |
| teleop | 105 | 89 |
| endgame | 44 | 67 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 205 | 201 |
Result
Final score
205 – 201
Prediction missed · off by 77.4 pts
Match videos
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