Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
151.93 – 136.23
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
151 – 201
Prediction missed · off by 32.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 52.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 62.32Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92Event APEX 37.04Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11
Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 15.26Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 57.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 63.23Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8126, 245, 11386
76
/ 100 compatProjected
151.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8126, 245, 11386
Auto
34.1 23%
Teleop
74.2 51%
Endgame
38.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5980, 3875, 5676
67
/ 100 compatProjected
136.2 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5980, 3875, 5676
Auto
20.1 15%
Teleop
75.5 56%
Endgame
39.1 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.27
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score151.9pts
Blue projected score136.2pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 15.7
- Score range
- 115–173
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
365.2Season APEX354.8
34.1Auto20.1
74.2Teleop75.5
38Endgame39.1
20Consistency48
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 26 |
| teleop | 74 | 114 |
| endgame | 42 | 61 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 151 | 201 |
Result
Final score
151 – 201
Prediction missed · off by 32.9 pts
Match videos
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