Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.68 – 145.68

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±11.6

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 43.99Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 26.36Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5559Gear Grinders

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 50.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±9.8

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 50.07Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 60.63Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 34.98Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 858, 3658, 5559

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 858, 3658, 5559

Auto

16.5 14%

Teleop

63.0 54%

Endgame

37.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8126, 245, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8126, 245, 11386

Auto

33.9 24%

Teleop

71.8 51%

Endgame

36.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.7pts

Blue projected score145.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25
Score range: 100–167
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.4Season APEX365.2

16.5Auto33.9

63Teleop71.8

37.4Endgame36.4

39Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	36
teleop	115	86
endgame	55	47
foul	0	20
total	187	189

Result

Final score

187 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Match videos

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