Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.95 – 77.41

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.4 ±12.2

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 9.76Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 29.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 1.76Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.9 ±11

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 39.94Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 9.76Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 27.71Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10651, 8397, 9239

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10651, 8397, 9239

Auto

8.0 20%

Teleop

20.8 51%

Endgame

12.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9566, 5675, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9566, 5675, 5676

Auto

18.4 24%

Teleop

44.6 59%

Endgame

12.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.9pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.5
Score range: 21–97
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 109.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.4Season APEX322.9

8Auto18.4

20.8Teleop44.6

12.1Endgame12.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	18
teleop	22	58
endgame	13	33
foul	0	0
total	41	109

Result

Final score

41 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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