Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.49 – 43.73

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.7 ±12.7

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 18.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 9.64Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 9.4Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.5 ±12.8

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 50.86Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4453The Red Hot Chili Bots

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX -6.12Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.01Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10651, 9672, 5980

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10651, 9672, 5980

Auto

9.5 26%

Teleop

19.1 53%

Endgame

7.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1188, 4453, 9203

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1188, 4453, 9203

Auto

20.6 47%

Teleop

17.3 40%

Endgame

5.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.5pts

Blue projected score43.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.2
Score range: 17–64
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.7Season APEX220.5

9.5Auto20.6

19.1Teleop17.3

7.3Endgame5.6

39Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	19
teleop	23	25
endgame	27	13
foul	0	0
total	64	57

Result

Final score

64 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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