Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.28 – 77.43

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±11.6

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 38.43Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5623Robotic Rams

Season APEX 80Event APEX 16.62Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 15.23Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.7 ±12.4

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 5.26Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 13.22Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 58.95Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 858, 5623, 9566

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 858, 5623, 9566

Auto

11.3 17%

Teleop

24.6 37%

Endgame

30.8 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9638, 7911, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9638, 7911, 245

Auto

18.3 24%

Teleop

29.6 38%

Endgame

29.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.3pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 50–97
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.9Season APEX305.7

11.3Auto18.3

24.6Teleop29.6

30.8Endgame29.8

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	22
teleop	67	39
endgame	29	14
foul	0	0
total	101	75

Result

Final score

101 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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