Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.62 – 66.83

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±13.3

9239Panthers robotics

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 8.62Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 14.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.49Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.1 ±12.8

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 47.19Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 10.76Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7256Irish Robotics

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 8.88Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9239, 5248, 11407

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9239, 5248, 11407

Auto

8.4 23%

Teleop

28.4 77%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5152, 9672, 7256

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5152, 9672, 7256

Auto

26.4 39%

Teleop

19.5 29%

Endgame

21.9 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.6pts

Blue projected score66.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.2
Score range: 18–87
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.7Season APEX192.1

8.4Auto26.4

28.4Teleop19.5

0.1Endgame21.9

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	14	20
endgame	11	8
foul	0	15
total	36	57

Result

Final score

36 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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