Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.71 – 63.05

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.5 ±10.5

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 53.01Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2959Robotarians

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 20.7Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 118Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.5 ±12.8

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 3.91Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7658MagiTech

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -2.48Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 61.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1188, 2959, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1188, 2959, 4237

Auto

47.5 25%

Teleop

111.4 59%

Endgame

28.4 15%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9703, 7658, 5675

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9703, 7658, 5675

Auto

20.2 32%

Teleop

32.8 53%

Endgame

9.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.7pts

Blue projected score63.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.7
Score range: 43–212
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 111.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.5Season APEX266.5

47.5Auto20.2

111.4Teleop32.8

28.4Endgame9.4

5Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	18
teleop	97	55
endgame	16	1
foul	0	0
total	160	74

Result

Final score

160 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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