Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.78 – 70.01

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.3 ±13.3

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 17.28Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -3.26Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 8.76Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.7 ±12.2

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 50.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 2.69Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 16.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3658, 9203, 8041

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3658, 9203, 8041

Auto

7.0 32%

Teleop

7.7 36%

Endgame

6.9 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3875, 9638, 10651

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3875, 9638, 10651

Auto

3.1 4%

Teleop

37.8 54%

Endgame

28.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.8pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.2
Score range: 3–90
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.3Season APEX290.7

7Auto3.1

7.7Teleop37.8

6.9Endgame28.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	35	61
endgame	20	28
foul	0	0
total	67	104

Result

Final score

67 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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