Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.95 – 0

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229 ±11.6

5248Robo-Saxons

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 19.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 20.77Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 27.63Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±13.3

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 12.32Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7658MagiTech

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -2.54Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4453The Red Hot Chili Bots

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX -9.91Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5248, 9566, 8397

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5248, 9566, 8397

Auto

5.2 8%

Teleop

46.8 70%

Endgame

15.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10473, 7658, 4453

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10473, 7658, 4453

Auto

5.0 0%

Teleop

3.1 0%

Endgame

-8.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68pts

Blue projected score-0.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68
Score range: -20–88
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229Season APEX175.3

5.2Auto5

46.8Teleop3.1

15.1Endgame-8.7

13Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	7	6
endgame	12	8
foul	0	0
total	28	33

Result

Final score

28 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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