Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.21 – 85.69

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.6 ±13.9

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 12.58Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 7.56Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 14.07Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±12.2

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 50.81Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 18.08Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 16.8Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7911, 8041, 7226

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7911, 8041, 7226

Auto

8.0 22%

Teleop

15.9 44%

Endgame

12.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8126, 3658, 5610

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8126, 3658, 5610

Auto

19.5 24%

Teleop

46.1 56%

Endgame

16.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.2pts

Blue projected score85.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.5
Score range: 14–106
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.6Season APEX212.4

8Auto19.5

15.9Teleop46.1

12.5Endgame16.3

9Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	23
teleop	27	36
endgame	16	22
foul	0	0
total	51	81

Result

Final score

51 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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