Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.26 – 230.16

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 92 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.6 ±12.4

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -12.73Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 159.95Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX -6.96Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.8 ±11.2

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 51.38Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 26.09Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 152.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9203, 2767, 9638

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9203, 2767, 9638

Auto

42.3 30%

Teleop

65.8 47%

Endgame

31.6 23%

Strengths

· 2767 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 858, 11407, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 858, 11407, 8608

Auto

39.7 17%

Teleop

139.6 61%

Endgame

49.4 22%

Strengths

· 8608 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.3pts

Blue projected score230.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.9
Score range: 120–250
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 110.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.6Season APEX454.8

42.3Auto39.7

65.8Teleop139.6

31.6Endgame49.4

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	12
teleop	95	78
endgame	64	34
foul	0	0
total	218	124

Result

Final score

218 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 92 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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