Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.7 – 119.6

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.5 ±13.9

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 16.44Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4453The Red Hot Chili Bots

Season APEX 70.5Event APEX -12.97Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7911Scrap Cat Robotics Team Puma

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 8.23Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.8 ±11.7

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -0.89Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 116.37Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8041Lake City Ultrabots

Season APEX 45.2Event APEX 4.12Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5610, 4453, 7911

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5610, 4453, 7911

Auto

3.6 31%

Teleop

8.3 71%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5980, 4237, 8041

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5980, 4237, 8041

Auto

37.5 32%

Teleop

67.5 57%

Endgame

13.9 12%

Strengths

· 4237 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11.7pts

Blue projected score119.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.9
Score range: -8–140
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 110.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.5Season APEX349.8

3.6Auto37.5

8.3Teleop67.5

-0.2Endgame13.9

5Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	24
teleop	4	80
endgame	11	18
foul	0	0
total	34	122

Result

Final score

34 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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