Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.53 – 65.9

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.3 ±12.2

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 22.99Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 17.24Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8397Astrobots

Season APEX 120.1Event APEX 26.3Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±12.2

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 34.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9566Red Storm Rookies

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 19.33Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 12.51Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3658, 7226, 8397

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3658, 7226, 8397

Auto

17.3 27%

Teleop

31.9 50%

Endgame

15.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9215, 9566, 9672

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9215, 9566, 9672

Auto

7.3 11%

Teleop

38.4 60%

Endgame

17.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.5pts

Blue projected score65.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 46–87
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.3Season APEX206.1

17.3Auto7.3

31.9Teleop38.4

15Endgame17.9

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	23	43
endgame	11	16
foul	0	0
total	45	75

Result

Final score

45 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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