Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.74 – 103.84

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.4 ±9.8

5675WiredCats

Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 63.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 7.41Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 51.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.1 ±11.2

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 16.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 36.04Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 50.86Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5675, 4327, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5675, 4327, 8126

Auto

27.0 22%

Teleop

62.6 51%

Endgame

32.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11407, 5152, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11407, 5152, 245

Auto

35.5 34%

Teleop

36.6 35%

Endgame

31.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.7pts

Blue projected score103.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.9
Score range: 84–143
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.4Season APEX356.1

27Auto35.5

62.6Teleop36.6

32Endgame31

24Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	47
teleop	62	99
endgame	45	50
foul	0	0
total	118	196

Result

Final score

118 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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