Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.05 – 76.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±13.3

3658Robo - Beavers

Season APEX 74.4Event APEX 30.68Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9703Q_Bots

Season APEX 56Event APEX 5.23Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9638Tigers, Bro!

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 3.14Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±12.2

7658MagiTech

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 4.73Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 18.05Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8126Control Freaks

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 53.51Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3658, 9703, 9638

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3658, 9703, 9638

Auto

12.2 33%

Teleop

16.0 43%

Endgame

8.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7658, 5980, 8126

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7658, 5980, 8126

Auto

18.9 27%

Teleop

43.9 63%

Endgame

7.4 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.1pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.2
Score range: 17–98
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 38 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX227

12.2Auto18.9

16Teleop43.9

8.9Endgame7.4

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	14
teleop	2	4
endgame	0	0
foul	10	5
total	15	23

Result

Final score

15 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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