Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.79 – 201.9

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.8 ±13.9

5610Turbulence

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 19.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7658MagiTech

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX -7.41Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7256Irish Robotics

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 4.83Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±10.7

9672Colon Magi Robotics

Season APEX 28Event APEX 17.17Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 14.74Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 169.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5610, 7658, 7256

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5610, 7658, 7256

Auto

11.5 79%

Teleop

12.4 85%

Endgame

-9.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9672, 4327, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9672, 4327, 2767

Auto

46.6 23%

Teleop

97.1 49%

Endgame

56.3 28%

Strengths

· 2767 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score16.8pts

Blue projected score201.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.1
Score range: -2–221
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.8Season APEX430.8

11.5Auto46.6

12.4Teleop97.1

-9.3Endgame56.3

25Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	43
teleop	5	77
endgame	9	41
foul	0	0
total	26	161

Result

Final score

26 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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