Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.7 – 73.33

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.8 ±12.2

3875Red Storm Robotics

Season APEX 155.8Event APEX 42.89Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5980East Grand Rapids Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX -0.52Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11407Sturgis Trojans

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 15.33Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.2 ±11.6

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 48.44Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10651Gear Cats

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 19.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10473Team Lance-B-Bot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 5.44Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3875, 5980, 11407

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3875, 5980, 11407

Auto

20.0 35%

Teleop

17.6 31%

Endgame

19.6 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 858, 10651, 10473

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 858, 10651, 10473

Auto

6.0 8%

Teleop

34.9 49%

Endgame

30.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.7pts

Blue projected score73.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.6
Score range: 38–93
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.8Season APEX209.2

20Auto6

17.6Teleop34.9

19.6Endgame30.9

35Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	11
teleop	41	64
endgame	15	32
foul	0	0
total	75	107

Result

Final score

75 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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